By: Uttara Choudhury

As a result of growing demand for natural resources, and today’s global powers seeking access to the resource-rich Caspian Basin, the New Great Game has become a Chinese-Russian-American power play.

A fireside chat during the 2018 edition of the One Globe Forum focused on how India could strengthen its diplomatic, geostrategic, energy and trade ties with a resource-rich region, variously referred to as Central Asia, Eurasia or the heart of the Silk Road. “If you look at the latest developments in Eurasia you see a very interesting scenario unfolding. A new Great Game is on with China's “One Belt, One Road” or Silk Road Economic Belt initiative,” said panel moderator Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, Assistant Editor, The Economic Times.

While Central Asia has served as the crossroads between Eastern and Western civilization for centuries, it also provided the chessboard upon which the great empires skirmished for influence. Central Asia was traditionally seen as Russia’s orbit of influence since the mid-19th Century, but China’s involvement in the region dates back to the days of the Silk Road which connected Chinese trade with the Islamic world and later with Medieval Europe since the Han dynasty in 114 BC. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, China has returned to its old stomping ground alongside the United States and Russia with its ambitious “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which is often touted as a new Silk Route.

As a result of growing demand for natural resources, and today’s global powers seeking access to the resource-rich Caspian Basin, the New Great Game has become a Chinese-Russian-American power play. “Where does India stand in this Great Game after it was admitted as a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)?” asked Mr Chaudhury.

On 9 June 2017, India and Pakistan became full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — a grouping of the five Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and regional powerhouses Russia and China —  whose primary objectives is to curb extremism in the region and ensure stability on the borders of its members.

“Looking beyond the geo-politic rhetoric, the SCO does not appear necessarily postured as a countermeasure to limit the influence of Western alliances such as Nato as some in the West perceive it to be. Its aim is more multi-faceted than simply to move towards balancing power or securing the region. It should be seen as a vehicle for increasing economic and social integration of the region,” said Dr Sidharth Saxena, Chairman Cambridge Central Asia Forum, Cambridge University.

Many scholars see India’s entry into the China-dominated SCO as a major milestone in regional geopolitics. However, thanks to diffused political will India’s relations in Central Asia are marginal when compared to that of China and Russia. Despite efforts being made by India, questions such as what India can offer to Central Asia and what India symbolizes for Central Asia remain a challenge for India-Central Asia relations.

While China has advanced in its efforts to build its own new Silk Road, India is still struggling to capitalize on its potential role in Central Asia, noted Dr Saxena, a trained anthropologist, historian and physicist with research interest in the institutional history in Central Asia and the Middle East. “Many like dwelling on the fact that unlike India, China shares long borders with three Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. But we have to go beyond our obsession with land connectivity,” said Dr Saxena, while highlighting the strength of India’s soft power. “We have to capitalize on the reality that we have great resonance in the region through films, Bollywood movies, music and cultural connections.”

As Central Asian countries look for ways to boost their economy and skills gap, now is a good time for India to help these countries build human capital, a critical component for success. “India can help Central Asia with human capital development by offering education and training programs. India provides a talent pipeline to the world. It has the expertise to help Central Asian countries renew and develop human capital by training petroleum, mining, information technology and other key professionals,” said Dr Saxena. Central Asia is one of the largest beneficiaries of the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program. India has been assisting Central Asian countries in sectors including IT, food processing, and courses in English.

During the last few decades, Central Asian countries and India have established strong relations in various fields: textiles, metallurgy, chemicals, mining, hydrocarbon, mineral processing, construction, and industrial production.

India's energy diplomacy in Central Asia will guide the new relationship. Kazakhstan is the biggest oil and gas producer in Central Asia, and has advocated for an Asian Energy Strategy. Turkmenistan is seeking the expertise of Indian oil and gas public sector undertakings in the fields of training, design, construction, exploration and production. "Kazakhstan is the 10th largest oil producing country in the world, and has the third largest uranium reserves in the world,” pointed out Dr Saxena.

In July 2015, Kazakhstan inked an agreement to supply India with 5,000 metric tons of nuclear fuel by 2019. The uranium supply from Kazakhstan is a boon to India's energy plans and makes the Central Asian country India’s No. 1 uranium supplier.

“Energy is one critical pixel of this picture of current regional developments, and I am not talking about pipelines and oil and gas deals alone. Underneath this synergy lies a much greater potential: an earnest possibility to kick-start the much needed post-Silicon energy efficiency paradigm for the world. Here lies an era of energy efficiency at the core of all technology, not only in production of solar, wind, water or nuclear energy,” said Dr Saxena, while highlighting key developments in rare earth minerals development projects in Central Asia.

India’s admission to the Ashgabat Agreement in February this year has paved the way for India's participation in the establishment of an international transport and transit corridor between the governments of Iran, Oman, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The agreement was originally signed in 2011. The agreement will facilitate India's ability to transport goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf and also help India strengthen its trade and commercial ties with the countries of both regions. The agreement will serve to aid a lot of projects which India has launched like building Chahbar Port.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed the tripartite Chabahar Port agreement with Iran and Afghanistan to boost connectivity with Central Asia and beyond. To keep from being boxed in by China and Pakistan, India would like to use the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) stretching from ports in India to the port of Chabahar in Iran, to access Afghanistan, which has a highway across the north linking to Central Asia, culminating in Kazakhstan.

“After Prime Minister Modia’s visit to Oman, India is taking an interest in developing the Omani port of Duqm and linking it with Chabahar Port,” said Dr Saxena.

In February this year, during the prime minister’s visit to Oman, India also gained access to the strategic Duqm Port in Oman for military use, to counter China in the Indian Ocean.

India’s trade with Central Asia is small at a little over $1 billion and it is handicapped by transport bottlenecks in the wake of Pakistan denying transit access to New Delhi. However, all that could change with India’s Connect Central Asia policy. “Once implemented properly, the Connect Central Asia policy could be a game changer for India,” said Dr Saxena.